Introduction to the Crisis
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has significant implications for Pakistan, given its dependence on LNG imports from Qatar and the UAE. However, the war’s impact on Pakistan’s strategic posture is more nuanced than the energy headlines suggest.
The ‘Look West’ Thesis
The ‘Look West’ thesis assumed a stable, investing Gulf. But the same crisis that destabilizes the Gulf is also exposing the limits of the U.S. security umbrella, and potentially generating demand for a supplementary security partnership.
For example, the Gulf states did not want this war, with multiple leaders warning President Trump of the consequences. Despite this, Trump proceeded with Operation Epic Fury, which led to Iranian drones and missiles striking all six GCC states within the first 48 hours.
Consequences of the War
The consequences of the war are far-reaching, with fires breaking out near luxury hotels in Dubai and Kuwait’s international airport being hit. Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery was also put out of commission.
Meanwhile, the war is also exposing the limits of the U.S. security umbrella, which could lead to new opportunities for Pakistan. Additionally, the crisis is highlighting the need for a more diversified approach to security in the region.
Conclusion and Next Steps
In conclusion, the Iran war is testing the ‘Look West’ policy and may prove it right. Therefore, Pakistan must be prepared to adapt to the changing circumstances and seize new opportunities. Finally, the country must prioritize a more diversified approach to security and economic development.
