US-Iran War: A Strategic Challenge for China

The recent US-Israeli strikes on Iran have shut down the Strait of Hormuz, causing energy insecurity for Asia, notably China. This conflict poses a strategic challenge to China, which has lost key fuel supply sources since 2026.

Instability in the Strait of Hormuz

China receives 37.7% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. However, Beijing has been preparing for this disruption since the 2010s. China has approximately 1.39 billion barrels of oil in storage, enough for 120 days of net imports.

Oil from the Gulf represents a smaller share of China’s energy mix, dominated by coal and renewables. Nevertheless, a prolonged closure of the Strait will pressure China’s 2026 economic growth target of 4.5-5%.

Revisiting the National Security Strategy

The Iran war fits into Washington’s broader posture towards China, as outlined in the 2025 National Security Strategy and 2026 National Defence Strategy. The US may perceive oil and gas as a lever to counter China’s dominance in critical minerals.

For example, the proposed Power of Siberia 2 pipeline from Russia may become more attractive to Beijing if the Strait remains disrupted. Every crisis that exposes maritime chokepoints strengthens the case for overland alternatives, benefiting Russia.

In conclusion, the US-Iran war has significant implications for China’s energy security. While China has buffers to mitigate short-term disruptions, a prolonged closure will reshape Beijing’s strategic calculations.

Therefore, it is essential for China to diversify its energy sources and invest in overland alternatives to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, China should revisit its national security strategy to address the emerging challenges in the region.